Tipsheet: Trade speculation will hang over Cardinals all season

A long list of young Cardinals players and prospects come into this season with much to prove.

That process starts on opening day. Will the promise of spring training translate into performance in the 162-game grind?

We’ll find out as the real games begin. We're done speculating.

This team could be good enough to hang in the National League Central race. But the 2025 season is all about setting the table for 2026 and beyond for the Chaim Bloom regime, so the whole industry is waiting for John Mozeliak to start selling off some veterans to add to the prospect pile.

That puts even more focus on the younger players who are expected to take the team forward. Let's see what they do.

Over at CBSSports.com, Mike Axisa reminded us that third baseman Nolan Arenado is a trade waiting to happen:

"We know the Cardinals want to trade Nolan Arenado and that Arenado wants out. Put those two things together and it feels like only a matter of time until he's moved. It didn't happen this offseason (it almost did) but it will at the deadline, we boldly predict. Where will Arenado land? I won't be specific, though there's a certain all-in NL East team with a core that's starting to get older and wouldn't have to try hard to find a way to make things work on the infield corners (by moving a certain outfielder-turned-first baseman back to the outfield). Point is, I'm predicting Arenado moves at the trade deadline rather than waiting until next offseason."

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez takes it a step further while predicting a fire sale:

"The Cardinals are clearly a team in transition, and yet their general inactivity hasn't necessarily indicated as much. Success for them this year means getting production from the array of veterans still dotting their roster — Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz — and then getting young players back for them via trade, either at midseason or over the ensuing winter. There are some no-trade clauses sprinkled in there, not just with Arenado but with Contreras and Gray, too, so it could be tricky."

Over at The Athletic, Jim Bowden assessed the team’s starting rotation heading into the season:

"Gray’s velocity in spring training. He’s the Cardinals’ best starter but has a no-trade clause and doesn’t want to be moved. Fedde and Mikolas are likely trade candidates this year. Liberatore will get another shot in the rotation; Matz will start the season in the bullpen but also get some starts. The Cardinals will monitor (Michael) McGreevy’s development this year; he’s an interesting starting pitching prospect. St. Louis is solid defensively, which helps the rotation."

So no mater how well the Cardinals play, the potential for selloff trades will linger.

Here is what folks have been writing about Our National Pastime:

• Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus: “Essentially, there needs to be a distinction between ‘we aren’t making money’ and ‘we can’t make money.’ The Pirates had a chance to turn not just the team, but their reputation, around a decade ago when they were one of the most successful and exciting teams going for a three-year stretch, and they didn’t. They cut corners, relied heavily on finding inexpensive diamonds in the rough and rehab cases and players who could be coached into being more productive than their salary, refused to complement any of that with legitimate spending and acquisitions that could push them over the edge, and then watched the rival Cubs of all teams end up snapping their World Series drought instead.

"Fans aren’t flocking in droves anymore? The local television deal isn’t paying quite as much as it should be since the team isn’t in a strong position to negotiate, given deflated fan interest? Wow what a mystery, how could anyone ever solve this one?”

• Jordan Shusterman, Yahoo! Sports: “Arguably no roster in baseball has undergone more seismic transformations over the past decade than San Diego’s under president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. In partnership with former owner Peter Seidler, Preller has executed more industry-rattling trades and eye-popping free-agent signings than almost any other team. But in the wake of Seidler’s death and the subsequent legal battle for control of the team, the Padres operated quite differently this past winter.

"With a huge amount of payroll committed to a select group of players, there was little wiggle room to bring in any new impact talent. As a result, the Padres watched a huge portion of last year’s position-player group — Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, Kyle Higashoka — leave in free agency, replacing them with a horde of low-cost veterans. Only six teams bring back a lower percentage of 2024 plate appearances than San Diego.”

• Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: “Two years ago, the Braves looked like a budding dynasty. They combined a voracious approach to extending their own young stars with aggressive trades, opportunistic free agent signings, and a farm system that keep churning out unheralded gems. They had the MVP, a recent Rookie of the Year, and the Cy Young favorite. Everything was coming up Atlanta. Since then, the Braves traded a role player for the man who won the 2024 Cy Young. And yet! Their star has dimmed considerably, and the path forward is meaningfully less set in stone today. 

"Ronald Acuna Jr. scuffled in his MVP defense before tearing his ACL; he’ll start 2025 on the IL as he rehabs. Spencer Strider blew out his elbow and had internal brace surgery. Michael Harris II missed time and had his worst season as a big leaguer. Sean Murphy turned into a pumpkin. Matt Olson’s power dipped precipitously. Ozzie Albies was hurt and ineffective. The Braves still won 89 games and made the playoffs amidst all of that bad news. This team is packed with talent; even with many of their best players on the shelf, their lineup and rotation simply overwhelmed many of their opponents.” 

• Doug Glanville, ESPN.com: “The Royals' move to get Jonathan India will ripple through how their lineup is constructed. It's a case of a player's collective impact being more valuable than his individual one. India could hit leadoff and his improvement in the walks category allows other players to be slotted correctly in the lineup — though Kansas City still needs Hunter Renfroe and others to anchor the back end of the lineup. Veteran pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo know the pace of the season, and the Royals could be bolstered by the young arm depth they have in their system.

"Keep in mind that they were in first place on Aug. 27 last year and they still made the playoffs after losing seven in a row in September. They had room to slump and still get in. I see a better September and a team that now has a taste of the playoffs; but more importantly, I see an organization that is backing up the contract it gave Bobby Witt Jr. to make sure he will not be a star in a vacuum and that the team will be competitive every year and build internally with good players. Why? Because they already have their franchise player.”

Megaphone

“It's really hard to have two historically bad seasons in a row. Don't get me wrong, though, there's nothing to love about the White Sox this year.”

Westgate SuperBook baseball oddsmaker Randy Blum.